Showing posts from September, 2010

Inefficiencies in the football betting market

Is there an opportunity to systematically win in the NFL betting market? If there is, possible sources of this opportunity, "market inefficiency", or "pricing error" may include: Aggregate bettor bias Observable effects of the game being fixed Over compensation of the above by professional bettors Of course, this analysis isn't going to do itself, so I needed to step up to the plate. I found some research on the topic, mostly focusing on simple betting strategies and all of them severely limited in timeframe (citations at link below). My analysis includes all regular season game data from 1978 to 2009. So let's get to the fun part! Bet on the visitor 3603 wins 203 ties 3600 losses And then the obvious: Bet on the underdog 3735 wins 203 ties 3468 losses Ok... what about betting on a team when that team just lost to the opponent it is about to play within the past 21 days? Payback in 21 days (after losing previous game) 30 wins 1 ties 30 losse

The Mexicans are taking all our jobs, kick them out

Here's the argument, I'm sure you heard it before: There are untold millions who are subsisting on the government tit and we would all be better served by employing these individuals. Tax revenues will rise and entitlements will fall. The argument that these jobs pay too little will diminish when we open up the opportunity to Americans after taking away those opportunities to those who are here illegally. But the fact is: jobs exist in America if you want to work for them. You can support yourself easily and comfortably with the opportunities that are available. First, the jobs exist. Here are five jobs in the Philadelphia area for unskilled labor: All of these pay at least $12 per hour and include

Reference for Chris - dupe merge

Posting this for reference, for Chris, and for anyone else who manages LARGE sets of media files. I've been using this script for 10 years, here is the latest version: ========= #!/usr/bin/perl -w use strict; use Fcntl qw(:DEFAULT :flock); use File::Compare; use File::Temp; # Copyright (C) 2002-2010 Zygo Blaxell # This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify # it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by # the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or # (at your option) any later version. # This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, # but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of # MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the # GNU General Public License for more details. # You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License # along with this program; if not, write to the Free Software # Foundation, Inc., 59 Temple Place,